Yes, Jimenez pitches in the thin air of Coors, but at 25 years old Jimenez and on pace for 200 Ks and a sub-4 era Jimenez flies under the radar and appears not only to be a strong bet for a solid finish to the season, but a nice SP to keep in mind for next years draft.  In fact, there may not be a better mid-round SP selection than Jimenez who looks to continue to perform ast a very solid fantasy pitcher and could continue to develop into a legitimate ace.

His completely lost 2009 begs the question – should owners in keeper leagues hold on to Webb for 2010 given his uncertainty?  Coming into the season Webb was clearly one of the top 5 SPs in the game, the guy is a machine and was as good a bet for 20 wins and 200 K’s as anyone in the league.  But now, with this news, he is certainly a big risk as a keeper.  Compounding the risk is the amount of innings that Webb has thrown year in and year out – ‘03 180, ‘04 208, ‘05 229, ‘06 235, ‘07 236 and in ‘08 226.  Some pitchers can throw 200+ every year and have no issues, most humans though cannot.   The fact that Webb threw only 1 game this year before going out is another very alarm note.  It would be one thing if Webb battled for half of a season with some tenderness, but ultimately elected for surgery.  Fine, he gets cleaned up, takes some time off and comes back next year ready to go. But that’s not the case here.  Instead, Webb threw 4 innings on April 6, and then was unable to return for the entire year, not opting for surgery until August when the season was long gone.    

With that said, I think Webb is a speculative keeper, though certainly with as good of upside as anyone in the league.  Keeping him is a coin-toss, so to speak, in my book.  If you don’t have any other great options and feel lucky, go for it – if, however, you are set on keeping a SP and have a solid backup plan, say a young gun like Matt Garza or James Shields who might take another step forwad next year, then I might opt for that.   Either way, it was a lost year for one of the best in the league and demonstrates, yet again, why drafting SPs early is oftentimes a bad idea.

Buchholz is a different story, but, unfortuantely, appears to have even less fantasy value for the 2nd half than Hughes.  Despite his gaudy minor league numbers, mlb no-hitter, and solid start on Friday (5 2/3 inn, 4 hits, 1 run, 3 bb, 3 K’s), he has already been sent back down to Triple AAA.  There are rumours that the Sox may trade their elite pitching prospect, but I just do not see it happening.  He appears mlb ready, is cheap, and with Penny on the way out, Smoltz not a long-term fix and Dice-K somewhat of a question mark, the Sox could certainly use Clay next season so trading him at this juncture would seem foolish and out of character for the Sox who highly value young talent.

So, my advice, keep an eye on these top notch prospects but don’t hold your breath for any help from either of them during the second half (outside of quality RP numbers from Hughes).  Big prospects that should certainly be kept in mind for next years draft, but if you’re looking for guys to help with a playoff push, set your sites elsewhere.

I compete in two leagues: your typical 5×5 with 12 teams with six keepers. The other league is a bit more complex adding categories such as holds and win/loss along with OBP and doubles/triples. This league has you keep 8 players and then another four that meet some form of specific 1st or 2nd year player criteria. With 16 teams, the talent is pretty scarce come draft time. As a result, let’s rely on that standard 5×5 to make my point.

It’s always interesting to find the talent pool has been spread out. Tommy Hanson in the 25th round. Trevor Hoffman was tremendous value in the 19th. Heck, Adam Jones looks like an absolute steal in the 13th round. What may be even more important though is to take a look at the positional theme that emerges when you break down the quality of players that lasted beyond the top 10 rounds.

From rounds 10-25, I subjectively accounted for nearly 40 players that have gone on to have at least “quality” campaigns. The lowest tier of that group includes Barry Zito and Fernando Rodney and the highest tier including Nelson Cruz and Justin Upton. From there I broke these players down on a positional basis. Check out the following:

Catchers (2) – Two players at this position was pretty weak, but Mike Napoli has been solid and Pablo Sandoval has been (and will continue to be) a god. Still, while we know that good catchers can be found as a free agent as the season goes on (thank you Miguel Olivo), it’s probably best to try and net one in the early part of the draft.

1B (0) – Yep, you read that write. There wasn’t one single quality first baseman that was selected between these rounds. Run, don’t walk, but run to go out and acquire that top flight first bagger for your keeper leagues. There’s no sense in trying to pick up that needle at this position.

2B (2) – Ian Stewart has been great in some areas and Orlando Hudson has been a real find. Still, it’s nothing you’re terribly impressed with and the quality of talent here really suggests that a keeper second baseman is a really good idea. Yes, I know that’s a shocker.

SS (0) – Again, another position of interest that shows little to no talent. It certainly makes Jose Reyes and even Jimmy Rollins a lot more interesting. It also suggests that if you don’t have a SS keeper, Rollins or Reyes might not be a bad guy to target. If you are out of the playoffs, give up the farm for Reyes and you will be a happy fantasy camper next season.

3B (1) – Mark Reynolds has been great, but there’s nothing else after him. It’s beginning to look like infield is pretty important when you’re targeting keepers.

OF (7) – Obviously you have 3 positions (at least) to fill here, so that 7 isn’t quite as large as it may seem. Still, it looks like your odds of netting a quality outfielder are far greater than the guys in the infield. Also, the quality of these players was quite high (e.g., Upton, Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, Torrie Hunter, Nelson Cruz). If it was me, it might be wise to make that OF for infield trade in the off-season (or at the very least, try and pick up your infield needs early in your draft).

SP (13) – Again, you need like 6-8 starters, so this number is comparable with the OF talent. Still, when you look at the talent here (Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez, Josh Johnson, Erik Bedard, Jeff Weaver, etc.) it’s very clear that this is one of the last spots to invest heavily in with regard to your early draft or with keepers.

CL (10) – This is just ridiculous. If you are keeping a closer and his name isn’t Jonathan Papelbon, you might want to have your head examined. Trade Mariano Rivera (I don’t care how legendary he is) and sell high on Frankie Rodriguez before his arm falls off. Not only is it insane to look at the number of closers out there after the 10th round (and after 6 keepers), but most of the quality guys went in rounds 16 and up (including Hoffman, Gregg, Bell, Sherrill, and Francisco). Avoid keepers in this area altogether.

For some of us, the information listed here won’t help matters. I’m still going to keep Justin and BJ Upton along with Ryan Braun in the outfield. They represent players that I love and this article didn’t explore the complexity of OF in my league (we play specific OF positions, which definitely changes things with regards to keepers). Just the same, it re-affirms my desire to ignore the pitching categories and makes certain that Prince Fielder never leaves my roster (unless it’s for the best player ever – Albert Pujols).

The final two are intriguing and one of them is surging, so you might have to act fast if you are going to land the next great superstar.

Colby Rasmus – Two years ago, this guy was an untouchable in the long-term keeper leagues. Ranked as a top 5 prospect, Rasmus was heralded as a guy who could do it all. Thus far, 10 HR’s and a .282 avg. is pretty darn solid in his 245 at-bats. If anything else, keep this guy on your radar for next year and don’t hesitate to reach to get him in the ’09-10 draft. In Yahoo! he plays two positions and while he’s not exactly a speed demon, he does pretty much everything else well. His 2008 was a bust, but at 22, he’s proving doubters wrong by going through a July tear including three homers in five games.

Daric Barton – Ok, I figured I would throw this up there just in case one of my co-fantasy owners was just looking for names. Truly, this guy is as big a bust as there has been in the last couple of years.

Jeremy Hermida – It wasn’t too long, that folks were lumping him in the same category as Nick Markakis. That hasn’t panned out (yet), but don’t be surprised when it does. He’s only owned in 23 percent of the Yahoo! leagues out there and thus far his numbers look grossly mediocre. What’s interesting to me is that his walk rate has nearly doubled this year and even though he is continuing to strike out at a high rate, his batting eye is definitely improving. For a 25-year-old slugger, that’s never a bad thing. If you look at his second half power surge over the last two years (17 homers in a little over 400 at-bats), I think it’s reasonable to put him at a guy who is capable of 12 homers over the final 80 games and I wouldn’t be stunned if he puts together one of those torrid runs that puts his homer total closer to 15-17. He has always been streaky and that run is coming. Call it a hunch.

Others to consider: Mat Gamel – I don’t care what Casey McGehee is doing, anyone who has watched this guy hit knows that he’s going to wreck the ball at the big league level soon (too bad he’s not in the AL); Jarrod Saltalamacchia – If you need a second half catcher, don’t hesitate to go after Salty. He’s another reasonably young player who only has 700+ career at-bats. He’s in for a big second half.

The Top 10 is interesting to say the least. As expected, AP is number 1, but from there…well, let’s just say this year should have some very interesting fantasy drafts.

Michael Turner at #2 is reasonable, but with 377 carries last year, I’m probably taking him, but with fingers crossed. Maurice Jones-Drew at #3 and Forte at #4 are interesting.

Two big name backs that should make your fantasy drafts interesting:

Stephen Jackson – I have drafted Jackson multiple times and it always seems to be a Jekyl-Hyde proposition. Big games, then nada, then injury, then big games…..he toys with your psyche!

LT – So much talent, so many question marks. Which LT will you get? He is at a cross-roads it would seem, some have written him off, some haven’t. Picking LT in the 7-10 range could make or break…

What do you think of their rankings?

So we’ve looked at Nolan Reimold and Dexter Fowler, but now it’s time to look at two other potential stars that could help you claim that coveted fantasy trophy. Don’t forget the lessons of Hanley Ramirez, Brian McCann, and Ryan Braun over the last couple of years. If you play your cards right, you can go out and pluck an available future mega-star.

Cameron Maybin – All you have to know is that he was the centerpiece of a trade that landed Detroit Miguel Cabrera. People have soured on him as of late because he has yet to hit big league pitching. The reality is that he’s barely 22 (as of April) and he has really attempted to refine his approach to hitting over the last couple of months in the minors. He’s striking out roughly once every six times up, which is a significant improvement from his 1:3 ratio last season. He’s hitting .323 with a .404 OBP and while the production has been poor, the new found approach coupled with his immense potential will likely translate to big numbers for the 6’4” versatile monster. He’s likely to get a call up in the next month and now would be the time to act if you want a potential break out star.

Madison Bumgarner – So you’re kicking yourself. You missed out on Tommy Hanson. Last season you pooped away your chances at Cueto. It’s time to start positioning your waiver position to get the next big thing in pitching (and it sure isn’t Stephen Strasburg). Bumgarner is an absolute freak. The fact that he’s 19 and 4-1 with a 2.13 era in AA is pretty impressive, but that’s not exactly a shocking development. He was the 9th best prospect as rated by Baseball America to start the year and if BA were to release a current list, he’d likely be a strong candidate for the second spot (behind everyone’s newest dreamy future bust). Noted prognosticator John Sickels has already gone on record that he thinks Bumgarner is better. I think he’s a better pickup than the next Paul Wilson (sorry Stephen) or even David Price (not that David Price is available), but if I were ranking my six potential second half beasts in order, he’d probably be number six. Still, the upside is there, but predicting it for a 20 year old isn’t always the surest bet.

In 2008, however, Rios took a step back statistically with a final line of 91 runs, 15 Hr, 79 rbi, 32 sbs, and a .291 avg.  So, while his sb’s nearly doubled to an impressive 32, his runs dropped significantly, his HR’s dipped more than a third, and both his rbi and ba were down, though insignificantly.  At the magical age of 27 his status as an elite OF was less clear.

Enter 2009 and so far Rios has put up 37 runs, 9 Hr, 35 rbi, 13 sb, and a .275 avg., which would play out to a final line of 83 runs, 20 Hr, 81 rbi,  and 29 sbs.  While these numbers are certainly helpful, 20/20, let alone 20/29 is a great stat, the numbers do not justify his lofty draft position or annual keeper status, not yet anyway.  But, over the last month Rios has hit .303, with 10 sbs.  A guy that seems to put it together in one-half of the season only, he could be in for a nice run in the coming months and the Tor. offense certainly does not hurt his cause.

With a solid boost in the second half Rios could  challenge for 100, 25, 100, 30, .290 – of course, he has a long way to go and it’s perhaps just as likely that he ends up at 80, 20, 80, 20, .275.  If an owner has been let down by Rios so far this season and you feel like gambling, it might be a good time to see if you can catch him low.  As for whether me, well, I’ve bought into his potential and pedigree so far, might as well keep going….