During the season, however, usually only mediocre or poor arms are available on the waiver wire or free agent pool.  That’s why I was surprised when this player was available in a deep league where good starting pitching is at a premium.  He was definitely worth a pickup and I’ll show you why.  Take a look at the chart below which shows results from last July 15 after the All-Star break through last week.

Player A obviously is the best of the bunch showing great control with low BB/9 and overpowering stuff with a high K rate.   Player A is everybody’s favorite recovering depression patient, Zach Greinke, and he has been awesome.

The rest of the players are Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jorge de la Rosa.  Can you match the player to their line?

The only pitcher with the losing record is Player F, other wise known as Josh Beckett, who really has been hittable lately.  The other ace, Cole Hamels, is player D, with the highest HR rate.  Wandy Rodriguez is B, Edinson Volquez is E and the player I picked up is Player C- Jorge de la Rosa.

If de la Rosa can cut down on his walks by a little bit I should have something really special.  He shows the ability to keep the ball in the park and miss bats, both attributes are needed in Colorado.  He starts tonight at Pittsburgh.

With so few top-tier choices at either position, many of us end up crossing-fingers and drafting on upside in the late-middle and late rounds.

In many cases these reach picks don’t immediately pan out and there are some short-term gems to be found.

Here are three that I drafted, and I am paying the price for…

J J Hardy
Drafted under the premise of “get me 20 HR and 80 RBI”, Hardy is mired in a terrible slump. Hitting a paltry .156, manager Ken Macha is giving him time off to “regroup”. Ouch.

Mike Aviles
Hitting .213 and has been pushed to the bottom of the order, batting 9th. Still a great deal of potential here, and he has hit the last few games, but so far a real disappointment from someone I viewed as a break-out candidate.

Kelly Johnson
He started hot and fast, but quickly (make that immediately) went straight down. Now in a platoon situation, hitting .213, he offers little fantasy value at this point.

There are however some real surprises, all of whom I missed on of course…

Marco Scutaro
Operating in relative fantasy anonymity, Scutaro is currently ranked 36 in Y! rankings and is hitting a respectable .280 with 5 round-trippers, 15 RBI and 24 runs. Throw in multi-position eligibility at 2B, SS and 3B and I’m buying.

Jason Barlett
.349, 5 steals, 15 Runs and 3 HR…..compare that to over-hyped Alexei Ramirez. Enough said.

The point is, there are a great deal of value picks still on the waiver-wire to help you fill your middle infield holes. When you boil it down to solid, effective numbers to shore up a team, and get past the name recognition, there are some steals waiting on you.

Today, Johnson threw an absolute gem against the dangerous Mets while squaring off against Santana, who I believe is the #1 pitcher in the league.  Johnson allowed 1 run in a complete game effort (the run came in the 9th inning), only five hits and1 walk, with 7 K’s.  In his first start earlier in the week, Johnson threw 6.2 innings for the win against the Nats, gave up 7 hits, but no runs and downed 8 by K (mostly his slider).  In total, after 2 starts, Johnson has issued only 1 walk while strking out 15 - only 1 run in over 15 innings. 

Ok ok, it’s only been 1 week and its a long season, but what a week it was! Will he continue to pitch this well, probably not, but if the first week is any indication, Johnson is a guy that I believe is worth pursuing in all leagues before the price gets too high.

It used to be that I would check the box scores in the newspaper to see how my players did. That gave way to pulling the box scores online. That was replaced by actually following the games live with a variety of different game trackers.

If that wasn’t bad enough, now I have the ultimate in technology. MLBTV coupled with my head-to-head updated personalized scores in Sportsline along with my Stattracker on Yahoo! Seriously, my computer is working overtime.

I admit it; I have a serious fantasy problem.

It’s bad enough that my newfound addiction is problematic with my wife and three kids. On top of that, I now have to experience every gruesome detail that goes on. Watching Yusmeiro Petit get charged with two runs on a double that goes through Mark Reynolds’ legs (I’m still fuming about that…how does someone get a double when it’s hit through the third baseman’s legs?); Watching my fantasy team going 0-13 to start the day (when I desperately need to win the Avg category); Viewing my beloved Cleveland Indians dropping to 0-5 because their pitching staff’s top arm is Vinnie Chulk.

True, I actually called Prince Fielder’s shot when chatting with a bud yesterday (he, of course, has every game on TV). My team hit a whopping five HR’s yesterday and I saw four of them. That’s pretty cool.

One potential benefit of having so much action is that I can actually watch the players that I own. Honestly, I’ve played many a NBA fantasy season without having watched a basketball game at all. I still have no idea what Kevin Martin looks like, but damn can he hoop it up. On top of that, I’m pretty quick to take some of the hometown announcing tips. Thanks Rob Dibble. I’m happy to learn that Scott Olsen sucks. I think I would have missed that otherwise.

Obviously all of this technology has it’s perks, but all in all, I miss the good old days. Now, I’m off to see if Scott Olsen can get out of the fifth. Not likely.

Here are couple that I have picked up and a couple to consider.

Nick Swisher
When the Yankees signed Mark Teixiera you knew his playing time would become limited to spot play at 1B, occasional DH duty and rotation through the outfield. Give him credit, when given opportunity, he made the most of it, starting with a pinch-hit double on Opening Day. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball and should provide continued value when he’s in the lineup. Be prepared for some streaks both hot and cold.

Brandon Inge
In most leagues, there are no points for defensive ability, which is one of Inge’s strengths. However, settling in at 3B for Detroit, while retaining catcher’s eligibility, makes him a viable option for those that missed out on upper-level catching options in their draft. Obviouly comfortable at 3B, Inge has started out hot. He can be counted on for some power and even chip in a few swipes.

Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was always an un-heralded, un-spectacular OF option, yet was consistent. Coming off an injury, he went un-drafted in many (if not most) formats. Solid contact hitter with pop, he could provide tremendous value hitting in the 3, 4 or 5 hole for the Twins.

Andruw Jones
The verdict is still out, and his recent history is not promising of a change. However, acceptance of a role and a decent start, could lead to increased playing time and some cheap power numbers. Big risk, high reward potential.

It always brings back memories for me, of being a kid where baseball was everything. While I am no old fart, I am 35, growing up without internet and the present-version of ESPN left many baseball fans longing for more information. Waking early to read through boxscores in the paper before school….so I would have fresh ammunition for any lunch-time baseball card trades. (don’t laugh, it one time helped broker a Moose Haas for Pete Rose card trade!)

Being a fan, as a kid, was more than just interest in what was happening in the major leagues. We played all the time, whether it be a neighborhood whiffle ball game, hardball, “Indian Ball” or just throwing the ball, it didn’t matter. It was fun, we loved it…..and I for one still do.

Baseball Cards
While I no longer collect, I still have box after box from days in which I did. Every once in awhile, I will pull out a box and shuffle through a stack. Pete Rose, JR Richard, Nolan Ryan, Reggie, Bench….to Rafael Ramirez, Paul Splitorff and Dane Iorg. I remember those guys, I read there stats…traded their cards and chewed the nasty gum that came with them.

It was always fun getting together with friends, and trading baseball cards. I am often reminded of it by the fantasy trade offers I receive, and send. Speculation, personal bias, trying to one-up.

I remember in the mid-80’s (6th grade or so) a buddy of mine was given a shoebox full of cards from an old family friend. One that had been in an attic for years. We rifled through that box, and every card we pulled out was like finding the hope-diamond. Having read a great deal about baseball, and having a father that was a long-time Yankee fan…it was crazy to be holding a REAL Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford card.

We found old Yaz cards, Maris, Mantle, Berra, Reese, Snider, Clemente, Mays…..going back to cards from 1959. I will never forget the fun we had in doing that. My friend was a huge Reds fan, and I had happened to pick up a number of autographs from a Reds game, and we made some trades, autographs and loads of Reds cards for a handful of history. I still have a number of those, and framed a 1960 Mantle and gave to my father a number of years ago for Christmas.

It is amazing how devalued cards are now. I saw some prices on rookie Mike Schmidt, George Brett cards recently and was a bit shocked. Might be time to start buying some, just for the memories and fun.

Fantasy Baseball
So for many folks like me, fantasy baseball is just another outlet to have some fun with a game that we already love. There are some that play that were never baseball fans, just in it to play “another fantasy” game. Strange, but to each their own.

However to me, fantasy baseball has served to bring together a group of folks, from all around the globe, that love the game…and have a little fun with it by playing fantasy. From my first years playing roto in college with fraternity brothers, to playing with a group now whose homes dot the globe….I have had fun with them all.

So, as we await the first round of games, I’m excited. Excited to watch games, excited to play fantasy baseball with friends.

Crack a beer, have a hot dog….and if you’re interested in Moose Haas offers, let me know.

Why? Well, we all like to look like experts….taking reach picks that pay off is a badge of honr of sorts. However, all to often we end up burned, or perhaps not burned, but slightly disappointed.

Remember these guys?

Rickie Weeks
The highly touted second basemen was thought to be a lock for 20/20 every season, with 30/30 upside. Injury has plagued Weeks….along with strikeouts. While Weeks is by no means a bust, it remains that he hasn’t lived up to some of the expectations.

A batting average killer, Weeks has yet to top 50 RBI or 20 HR in season. There is still alot to like here, a complete season will certainly yield higher power numbers and steals. However, injury and ability to make contact, have him slipping further down the draft board.

Jeremy Hermida
Similar to Weeks, Hermida was thought to be a legit 30/30 type, certainly 20/20. Also similar to Weeks, Hermida has a bit of an injury history, although he did top 500 AB in 2008.

It can be expected that Hermida will build upon his 08 totals and 20+ HR and 75+ would not be a reach as a by-product of another healthy season. However, it doesn’t appear that Hermida will ever run as was once expected.

As it is, Hermida is just another average fantasy outfielder that could be picked off a waiver list a just about any time in all but the deepest and biggest of leagues. Watch his numbers and health and be ready to pick up should we start to see the hitter that was forecasted several years ago.

Alex Gordon
Gordon, thought by many to be the second coming of the King of Pinetar himself, George Brett has been unspectacular, but consistent. Although entering just his 3rd MLB season, Gordon turned 25 in February and has some wondering if the upside will materialize.

Could a platoon be in Gordon’s future? Unless he learns to hit left-handed pitching, I don’t think it is out of the question. .234 1 HR 10 RBI vs. lefties, .273 15 HR 49 RBI vs. righties.

Watch closely to see how those left-handed numbers trend. However, even with a somewhat thin 3B pool, Gordon doesn’t warrant a pick until late-game.

Delmon Young
Yet another considered to be a 20/20 lock, the 2005 minor league player of the year has yet to realize their upside. It is without question that Young, just like Weeks and Gordon, has a rare combination of skills….however, like the others he just can’t seem to put them all together.

Entering his 4th major league season, could Young be prepped for a break-out year? Or is it what you see is what you get?

It will be interesting to see what players from this years draft might fall into the same categories in a couple seasons.

Cameron Maybin? David Price?

Matt Wieters by all accounts is the second coming of Johnny Bench…and according to some will be pounding major league pitching well before Memorial Day. We have heard similar hype before, will be interesting to watch which of this years young prospects are able to deliver.

5 keeper league, so round 1 of the draft was effectively round 6 (for clarity I will just refer to the rounds by those numbers as it represents the actual number of players picked).

Boy was I in the mood to roll the dice!? Among my risky selections were Ortiz, Ludwick (one-year wonder?), Furcal, Harden, Duchscherer, F. Carmona, and Nady.  However, I think these picks were justified, especially when viewing the ADP – some examples,

Round 6 drafted Ortiz – ADP 4.5

Round 10 drafted Ludwick – ADP 7.4

Round 12 drafted Furcal – ADP 5.8

Round 13 drafted Harden – ADP 8.2

Round 21 drafted Nady – ADP 15

So – while I’m not generally a huge gambler, at least not to the extent that half my team becomes a question mark, I just couldn’t resist in these situations - a 13th round pick for Harden, a guy that arguably has the best “stuff” in all of baseball and had an amazing stretch last season, i’ll sign up for that.  True, he’ll likely frustrate me at times during the year and may be a total injury bust, but I can live without Derek Lowe and Vazquez, the other selections around that time – solid staff fillers, but my team will survive without them. 

As to Dusch.  and Carmona, I drafted them in the last few rounds why not!?  Dusch. if he gets healthy could put up another fantastic season (at least partial season) and Carmona, after a great ‘07 and horrible ‘08, is looking amazing so far this Spring. Again, instead of taking orlando cabrera, polanco, blanton or some other ho-hum bag of mediocrity, that will probably appear on the waiver wire at some ponit anyway,  take a calculated risk and grab someone that could actually be a difference maker….

It’s all about taking chances and if these guys come through for me, this team will be a monster.

Let’s take a sample of this years big free agents. In my younger days, I would have looked at CC Sabathia as someone who I would have reached for. He has all the glitz and glamour of a first round pick, right? Wrong. Yes, he’s the number 1 SP that wears pinstripes, yes he’s a workhorse who almost singlehandedly made the Brewers a playoff team, he has all the press right now as far as the Yanks rotation is concerned. What’s not to like? Well underneath that fatsuit are some warts. For instance, last year when the Indians traded him, he was a pathetic 6-8 with an ERA approaching 4. He has been an absolute innings eater, figuratively speaking of course, over the past 2 seasons. He has never had arm troubles, but it’s a matter of when, not if. He is overrated. If I can pick him up in the late second round, sure I’d take him and cross my fingers, otherwise pass.

On the other hand, the other major Yankee acquisition, Mark Teixeira, may be a gamble worth paying off.  The model of consistency over the past 3 seasons make this first baseman very attractive.  With Tex, you know what you’re getting.  He’s going to drop over 35 balls into the outfield bleachers, dust home plate with his spikes over a hundred times, and should be an RBI machine in New York.  Now the downside.  There are plenty of power hitting first baseman in the game, position scarcity this is not.  I have found over the years that a big time free agent usually starts off slow, especially in New York.  The pressure to produce is immense.  Can he handle it?  I still say Tex is a first round pick, albeit a late one.  If he’s there at your draft in the second round, calmly select his name and fist pump under the table, because you got a steal. 

Pat said it correctly, value over big names.

Looking at the standard categories may help us decide. I used an average of projections for 2009 and final 2008 numbers to do a quick comparison.

Runs
With the move to third or cleanup spot in the order Ramirez may see a decrease in is plate appearances and score fewer runs. While he seems a lock to score over 100+ times I don’t think you can rely on him matching last year’s run total.   Cantu, Uggla, Hermida and Cody Ross will follow him in the order.  Reyes will remain in the leadoff spot in a new ballpark that is being sold as being less of an extreme pitchers park as the old Shea.  While the dimensions are similar there is more outfield ground to cover meaning more doubles for the speedy Reyes.  With Wright, Beltran and Delgado hitting behind him he should easily score 120+ runs.  Both will produce runs but Reyes should have 10-15 more runs.

RBI
With Ramirez moving to the third spot in the order he should easily be the highest producing RBI shortstop for 2009.  I am a little concerned with Maybin and Baker (a catcher!) as the projected table setters, but the RBI opportunities should be there.  The other concern is Hanley’s failure to produce in the 3 spot last year.  Last year in 56 ABs he had 1 HR 4 RBIs 4 SB and batted .268.   He may still have to make some mental or physical adjustments to be comfortable in the 3 spot.  I was surprised to see Reyes had 1 more RBI last year considering he hit 15 fewer HRs.  This year, however,  Ramirez should have 30-40 more RBIs.

HR
Reyes was supposed to develop more power than he has shown in his early career.  He still may hit 20 HRs but you can’t count on it.  Hanley had 33 taters last year and should be right around 30 this year.

SB
Reyes may be the best base burglar in the game and could top 70 stolen bases easily.  He simply dominates this category.  Ramirez has the talent to be a 30-30 guy every year, but his SB trend is down.  With a sore left shoulder and batting third in the order I doubt he’ll reverse that trend this year.

AVG
Toughest category to predict.  Both of these guys can slump badly at times but both have shown the ability to be .300 hitters.  While Ramirez is a lttle more patient at the plate he does strike out more often.  Reyes, appropriately, has a contact approach and his speed gets him a few hits each month.  I would slighty favor Ramirez in this category because he has a higher ceiling, but be worried that the change in his role in the batting order could cause a drop off.

So Reyes would be tops in Runs, dominate SBs and be close in AVG.  Ramirez would be tops in RBIs, dominate HRs, and have a slight edge in AVG.  Hanley has a more prevalent injury worry in his left shoulder but he was able to play through it last year.  The drop in the batting order last year also made him a worse hitter.  Reyes main concern is wearing down and having terrible Septembers and Octobers over the last two years.  Bottom line is I would be happy having either of these guys but would rank them as 1a and 1b at the position.  It wouldn’t be a surprise if Reyes ended up the clear winner.