The Top 10 is interesting to say the least. As expected, AP is number 1, but from there…well, let’s just say this year should have some very interesting fantasy drafts.

Michael Turner at #2 is reasonable, but with 377 carries last year, I’m probably taking him, but with fingers crossed. Maurice Jones-Drew at #3 and Forte at #4 are interesting.

Two big name backs that should make your fantasy drafts interesting:

Stephen Jackson – I have drafted Jackson multiple times and it always seems to be a Jekyl-Hyde proposition. Big games, then nada, then injury, then big games…..he toys with your psyche!

LT – So much talent, so many question marks. Which LT will you get? He is at a cross-roads it would seem, some have written him off, some haven’t. Picking LT in the 7-10 range could make or break…

What do you think of their rankings?

With so few top-tier choices at either position, many of us end up crossing-fingers and drafting on upside in the late-middle and late rounds.

In many cases these reach picks don’t immediately pan out and there are some short-term gems to be found.

Here are three that I drafted, and I am paying the price for…

J J Hardy
Drafted under the premise of “get me 20 HR and 80 RBI”, Hardy is mired in a terrible slump. Hitting a paltry .156, manager Ken Macha is giving him time off to “regroup”. Ouch.

Mike Aviles
Hitting .213 and has been pushed to the bottom of the order, batting 9th. Still a great deal of potential here, and he has hit the last few games, but so far a real disappointment from someone I viewed as a break-out candidate.

Kelly Johnson
He started hot and fast, but quickly (make that immediately) went straight down. Now in a platoon situation, hitting .213, he offers little fantasy value at this point.

There are however some real surprises, all of whom I missed on of course…

Marco Scutaro
Operating in relative fantasy anonymity, Scutaro is currently ranked 36 in Y! rankings and is hitting a respectable .280 with 5 round-trippers, 15 RBI and 24 runs. Throw in multi-position eligibility at 2B, SS and 3B and I’m buying.

Jason Barlett
.349, 5 steals, 15 Runs and 3 HR…..compare that to over-hyped Alexei Ramirez. Enough said.

The point is, there are a great deal of value picks still on the waiver-wire to help you fill your middle infield holes. When you boil it down to solid, effective numbers to shore up a team, and get past the name recognition, there are some steals waiting on you.

Here are couple that I have picked up and a couple to consider.

Nick Swisher
When the Yankees signed Mark Teixiera you knew his playing time would become limited to spot play at 1B, occasional DH duty and rotation through the outfield. Give him credit, when given opportunity, he made the most of it, starting with a pinch-hit double on Opening Day. He’s been tearing the cover off the ball and should provide continued value when he’s in the lineup. Be prepared for some streaks both hot and cold.

Brandon Inge
In most leagues, there are no points for defensive ability, which is one of Inge’s strengths. However, settling in at 3B for Detroit, while retaining catcher’s eligibility, makes him a viable option for those that missed out on upper-level catching options in their draft. Obviouly comfortable at 3B, Inge has started out hot. He can be counted on for some power and even chip in a few swipes.

Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was always an un-heralded, un-spectacular OF option, yet was consistent. Coming off an injury, he went un-drafted in many (if not most) formats. Solid contact hitter with pop, he could provide tremendous value hitting in the 3, 4 or 5 hole for the Twins.

Andruw Jones
The verdict is still out, and his recent history is not promising of a change. However, acceptance of a role and a decent start, could lead to increased playing time and some cheap power numbers. Big risk, high reward potential.

It always brings back memories for me, of being a kid where baseball was everything. While I am no old fart, I am 35, growing up without internet and the present-version of ESPN left many baseball fans longing for more information. Waking early to read through boxscores in the paper before school….so I would have fresh ammunition for any lunch-time baseball card trades. (don’t laugh, it one time helped broker a Moose Haas for Pete Rose card trade!)

Being a fan, as a kid, was more than just interest in what was happening in the major leagues. We played all the time, whether it be a neighborhood whiffle ball game, hardball, “Indian Ball” or just throwing the ball, it didn’t matter. It was fun, we loved it…..and I for one still do.

Baseball Cards
While I no longer collect, I still have box after box from days in which I did. Every once in awhile, I will pull out a box and shuffle through a stack. Pete Rose, JR Richard, Nolan Ryan, Reggie, Bench….to Rafael Ramirez, Paul Splitorff and Dane Iorg. I remember those guys, I read there stats…traded their cards and chewed the nasty gum that came with them.

It was always fun getting together with friends, and trading baseball cards. I am often reminded of it by the fantasy trade offers I receive, and send. Speculation, personal bias, trying to one-up.

I remember in the mid-80’s (6th grade or so) a buddy of mine was given a shoebox full of cards from an old family friend. One that had been in an attic for years. We rifled through that box, and every card we pulled out was like finding the hope-diamond. Having read a great deal about baseball, and having a father that was a long-time Yankee fan…it was crazy to be holding a REAL Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford card.

We found old Yaz cards, Maris, Mantle, Berra, Reese, Snider, Clemente, Mays…..going back to cards from 1959. I will never forget the fun we had in doing that. My friend was a huge Reds fan, and I had happened to pick up a number of autographs from a Reds game, and we made some trades, autographs and loads of Reds cards for a handful of history. I still have a number of those, and framed a 1960 Mantle and gave to my father a number of years ago for Christmas.

It is amazing how devalued cards are now. I saw some prices on rookie Mike Schmidt, George Brett cards recently and was a bit shocked. Might be time to start buying some, just for the memories and fun.

Fantasy Baseball
So for many folks like me, fantasy baseball is just another outlet to have some fun with a game that we already love. There are some that play that were never baseball fans, just in it to play “another fantasy” game. Strange, but to each their own.

However to me, fantasy baseball has served to bring together a group of folks, from all around the globe, that love the game…and have a little fun with it by playing fantasy. From my first years playing roto in college with fraternity brothers, to playing with a group now whose homes dot the globe….I have had fun with them all.

So, as we await the first round of games, I’m excited. Excited to watch games, excited to play fantasy baseball with friends.

Crack a beer, have a hot dog….and if you’re interested in Moose Haas offers, let me know.

Why? Well, we all like to look like experts….taking reach picks that pay off is a badge of honr of sorts. However, all to often we end up burned, or perhaps not burned, but slightly disappointed.

Remember these guys?

Rickie Weeks
The highly touted second basemen was thought to be a lock for 20/20 every season, with 30/30 upside. Injury has plagued Weeks….along with strikeouts. While Weeks is by no means a bust, it remains that he hasn’t lived up to some of the expectations.

A batting average killer, Weeks has yet to top 50 RBI or 20 HR in season. There is still alot to like here, a complete season will certainly yield higher power numbers and steals. However, injury and ability to make contact, have him slipping further down the draft board.

Jeremy Hermida
Similar to Weeks, Hermida was thought to be a legit 30/30 type, certainly 20/20. Also similar to Weeks, Hermida has a bit of an injury history, although he did top 500 AB in 2008.

It can be expected that Hermida will build upon his 08 totals and 20+ HR and 75+ would not be a reach as a by-product of another healthy season. However, it doesn’t appear that Hermida will ever run as was once expected.

As it is, Hermida is just another average fantasy outfielder that could be picked off a waiver list a just about any time in all but the deepest and biggest of leagues. Watch his numbers and health and be ready to pick up should we start to see the hitter that was forecasted several years ago.

Alex Gordon
Gordon, thought by many to be the second coming of the King of Pinetar himself, George Brett has been unspectacular, but consistent. Although entering just his 3rd MLB season, Gordon turned 25 in February and has some wondering if the upside will materialize.

Could a platoon be in Gordon’s future? Unless he learns to hit left-handed pitching, I don’t think it is out of the question. .234 1 HR 10 RBI vs. lefties, .273 15 HR 49 RBI vs. righties.

Watch closely to see how those left-handed numbers trend. However, even with a somewhat thin 3B pool, Gordon doesn’t warrant a pick until late-game.

Delmon Young
Yet another considered to be a 20/20 lock, the 2005 minor league player of the year has yet to realize their upside. It is without question that Young, just like Weeks and Gordon, has a rare combination of skills….however, like the others he just can’t seem to put them all together.

Entering his 4th major league season, could Young be prepped for a break-out year? Or is it what you see is what you get?

It will be interesting to see what players from this years draft might fall into the same categories in a couple seasons.

Cameron Maybin? David Price?

Matt Wieters by all accounts is the second coming of Johnny Bench…and according to some will be pounding major league pitching well before Memorial Day. We have heard similar hype before, will be interesting to watch which of this years young prospects are able to deliver.

While we have all learned (most times the hard way) that spring numbers rarely translate, Carpenter is a proven talent. It just happens that over the course of the last two seasons he has been unable to stay healthy.

That being said…this line is enough to make any fantasy owner salivate.

19 IP, 4BB, 10K and 0 earned runs! He gave up two yesterday to the Nats….so these numbers are obviously one start off….but the runs came off an error (interestingly, his own!).

The question is….can we believe it? Will Carp stay healthy and put up Cy worthy numbers? or will he go down after a few innings?

Its a gamble, with huge upside. Carpenter will assuredly be available mid-draft and at that point you have to ask yourself…..”Do I feel lucky?”.

I think it is a worthwhile gamble, three times in his career he has logged 200+ innings (twice in St. Louis, once in Toronto) and 4 other times more than 150 innings.

If you can get 150+ innings from Carpenter you can expect solid ERA, WHIP and K totals….I do not forsee him hurting you in any categories. Anything over 150 innings will be gravy.

So, where to draft him? Carpenter is virtually off the charts (in a bad way) in Y! and ESPN leagues creating an incredible late-middle round pick with high upside. So far all spring training reports, and results, have been positive. However, watch the innings, watch the reports on his shoulder and be prepared to sell “high” after a couple solid starts.

In Other Cardinals Pitching News
Don’t look now…but closer controversy is ripe in St. Louis. Perez has been thought to be the closer but has anyone noticed what Motte has been doing? Hmmmmm, yet another reason not to spend high/middle picks on closers.

According to a report on Mlb.com BJ Upton will miss the first two series’ of the season with Boston and Baltimore. Listed as a bone bruise to his hand, Upton owners can take solace in knowing it is not a leg injury – so steals should not be in jeopardy.

However, it is hard not to worry about production from the plate. His recent hand injury coupled with shoulder surgery late last fall are more than likely making some uneasy.

While not the fantasy contributor of Upton’s stature, it is looking like Brewers closer Trevor Hoffman could miss the start of the season. Hoffman was brought in to solidify the back-end of the Brewers bullpen, and his injury will bring further uncertainty.

Seth McClung, who has bounced from starter to bullpen, could become a sleeper candidate for early saves if he does not fill the 5th starter slot.

Others to pay close attention to as you head into your draft include: Ervin Santana, Justin Duchscherer, Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkilis, Robinson Cano, Chipper Jones, Derek Lee….

A great resource to bookmark and track your players can be found over at mlb.com.

A few things to take note of for the upcoming season.

Randy Johnson
He’s old…he’s grumpy and he is a Giant (figuratively and literally). A former fantasy stud, Johnson is often thought of as too old and too oft injured to be of value. While he productivity will not match those glory seasons of the recent past, it is entirely realistic to expect solid K’s and WHIP and ERA.

Raul Ibanez
Is it me…or has he been around since the Babe retired? Ibanez is not going to get you any star-power points….but he is going to provide consistent production. Bank on at least .280 25 90+ with an healthy upside now that he has moved into the renowned hitters park in Philly.

Jose Lopez
Why is this guy not getting more respect? Solid average, a nice power-stroke and RBI totals…..all with second-base eligibility! What’s not to like here? You can even expect 1B eligibility (if not already obtained in your league) which will provide additional flexibility for those in daily-roster leagues.

Who Will Disappoint?
Matt Wieters, Cameron Maybin, Colby Rasmus? Every year there is a hyped rook that many of us fall for. Jeremy Hermida, Alex Gordon both come to mind. Pre-draft hype, with tons of talent, followed by production that just doesn’t meet the perceived expectation. Draft the rooks in the high middle rounds with caution.

Who Is Going to Blow Up? Who Is Going to Implode?
Can Matt Kemp go 30-30? Will Ichiro get a couple black-eyes? Can Chris Young start making consistent contact?

The success of your fantasy season depends upon your draft, which in turn depends upon your draft prep. Pouring over stats, draft kits and projections can make one cross-eyed.

When considering projections, you need to take them with a grain of salt. Look for value, not star-power.

All too often fantasy players, especially those new to the game, will look at name value vs. fantasy value. Take a close look at production by position, you might be surprised what you uncover.

Also, looking at this from a 10-12 team mixed league, pay attention to what your competitors are doing. Have they filled their outfield? Did they reach for players based upon position scarcity? Did they jump in on the closer run?

Wheeler’s last 15 innings… 22 hits, 19 runs and a 6.28 ERA! Embattled Brad Lidge, equally ineffective in the closers role, is due back from the DL soon. Expect a battle of futility for the right be called Astros closer as Lidge and Wheeler continue their ‘fear of failure’ game of hot potato.

I would advise fantasy owners to steer clear of any Astros bullpen pitcher.

Other Closer Notes:
As if on cue, Jorge Julio choked in his first post-Fuentes demotion appearance. Meanwhile Manny Corpas shined. Expect Corpas to get the next Colorado save opportunity.

Baltimore Orioles interim manager Dave Trembley informed closer Chris Ray that he would receive a night off this past weekend. Reportedly, Ray was relieved to be relieved…..not exactly what I would call, “closer’s mentality”. Ray did proceed to convert a save opportunity last night, so perhaps the break did some good.