On Monday Brandon Webb’s right shoulder was “cleaned up” and he is officially done for 2009. Webb last pitched on opening day when he got shelled by Col. for 6 runs in 4 innings. Webb is expected to begin a throwing program in 3 to 4 months, though it is too far for any real timetable to be set for recovery thereafter.
His completely lost 2009 begs the question – should owners in keeper leagues hold on to Webb for 2010 given his uncertainty? Coming into the season Webb was clearly one of the top 5 SPs in the game, the guy is a machine and was as good a bet for 20 wins and 200 K’s as anyone in the league. But now, with this news, he is certainly a big risk as a keeper. Compounding the risk is the amount of innings that Webb has thrown year in and year out – ‘03 180, ‘04 208, ‘05 229, ‘06 235, ‘07 236 and in ‘08 226. Some pitchers can throw 200+ every year and have no issues, most humans though cannot. The fact that Webb threw only 1 game this year before going out is another very alarm note. It would be one thing if Webb battled for half of a season with some tenderness, but ultimately elected for surgery. Fine, he gets cleaned up, takes some time off and comes back next year ready to go. But that’s not the case here. Instead, Webb threw 4 innings on April 6, and then was unable to return for the entire year, not opting for surgery until August when the season was long gone.
With that said, I think Webb is a speculative keeper, though certainly with as good of upside as anyone in the league. Keeping him is a coin-toss, so to speak, in my book. If you don’t have any other great options and feel lucky, go for it – if, however, you are set on keeping a SP and have a solid backup plan, say a young gun like Matt Garza or James Shields who might take another step forwad next year, then I might opt for that. Either way, it was a lost year for one of the best in the league and demonstrates, yet again, why drafting SPs early is oftentimes a bad idea.
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