A History Lesson

It has been said so many times before, “we need to learn from history”. These words definitely apply to fantasy sports and as you try to determine who will be your keepers in the coming years, it might be wise to take away a few lessons from your most recent draft.

I compete in two leagues: your typical 5×5 with 12 teams with six keepers. The other league is a bit more complex adding categories such as holds and win/loss along with OBP and doubles/triples. This league has you keep 8 players and then another four that meet some form of specific 1st or 2nd year player criteria. With 16 teams, the talent is pretty scarce come draft time. As a result, let’s rely on that standard 5×5 to make my point.

It’s always interesting to find the talent pool has been spread out. Tommy Hanson in the 25th round. Trevor Hoffman was tremendous value in the 19th. Heck, Adam Jones looks like an absolute steal in the 13th round. What may be even more important though is to take a look at the positional theme that emerges when you break down the quality of players that lasted beyond the top 10 rounds.

From rounds 10-25, I subjectively accounted for nearly 40 players that have gone on to have at least “quality” campaigns. The lowest tier of that group includes Barry Zito and Fernando Rodney and the highest tier including Nelson Cruz and Justin Upton. From there I broke these players down on a positional basis. Check out the following:

Catchers (2) – Two players at this position was pretty weak, but Mike Napoli has been solid and Pablo Sandoval has been (and will continue to be) a god. Still, while we know that good catchers can be found as a free agent as the season goes on (thank you Miguel Olivo), it’s probably best to try and net one in the early part of the draft.

1B (0) – Yep, you read that write. There wasn’t one single quality first baseman that was selected between these rounds. Run, don’t walk, but run to go out and acquire that top flight first bagger for your keeper leagues. There’s no sense in trying to pick up that needle at this position.

2B (2) – Ian Stewart has been great in some areas and Orlando Hudson has been a real find. Still, it’s nothing you’re terribly impressed with and the quality of talent here really suggests that a keeper second baseman is a really good idea. Yes, I know that’s a shocker.

SS (0) – Again, another position of interest that shows little to no talent. It certainly makes Jose Reyes and even Jimmy Rollins a lot more interesting. It also suggests that if you don’t have a SS keeper, Rollins or Reyes might not be a bad guy to target. If you are out of the playoffs, give up the farm for Reyes and you will be a happy fantasy camper next season.

3B (1) – Mark Reynolds has been great, but there’s nothing else after him. It’s beginning to look like infield is pretty important when you’re targeting keepers.

OF (7) – Obviously you have 3 positions (at least) to fill here, so that 7 isn’t quite as large as it may seem. Still, it looks like your odds of netting a quality outfielder are far greater than the guys in the infield. Also, the quality of these players was quite high (e.g., Upton, Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, Torrie Hunter, Nelson Cruz). If it was me, it might be wise to make that OF for infield trade in the off-season (or at the very least, try and pick up your infield needs early in your draft).

SP (13) – Again, you need like 6-8 starters, so this number is comparable with the OF talent. Still, when you look at the talent here (Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez, Josh Johnson, Erik Bedard, Jeff Weaver, etc.) it’s very clear that this is one of the last spots to invest heavily in with regard to your early draft or with keepers.

CL (10) – This is just ridiculous. If you are keeping a closer and his name isn’t Jonathan Papelbon, you might want to have your head examined. Trade Mariano Rivera (I don’t care how legendary he is) and sell high on Frankie Rodriguez before his arm falls off. Not only is it insane to look at the number of closers out there after the 10th round (and after 6 keepers), but most of the quality guys went in rounds 16 and up (including Hoffman, Gregg, Bell, Sherrill, and Francisco). Avoid keepers in this area altogether.

For some of us, the information listed here won’t help matters. I’m still going to keep Justin and BJ Upton along with Ryan Braun in the outfield. They represent players that I love and this article didn’t explore the complexity of OF in my league (we play specific OF positions, which definitely changes things with regards to keepers). Just the same, it re-affirms my desire to ignore the pitching categories and makes certain that Prince Fielder never leaves my roster (unless it’s for the best player ever – Albert Pujols).