A crucial fantasy topic that has been touched upon in several posts is selling high and buying low – it’s a basic enough principle that is often hard to achieve and could determine whether your team moves up or slowly sinks to the bottom of the standings. Three SP’s that I advise fantasy owners sell at this time are Greinke, Zach Duke, and Edwin Jackson.
First, Greinke – yes he has been amazing all season, the #1 player in the fantasy game and only 25 years old, but I think it’s time to move him while his value is at a certain all-time, all-world high. Greinke is 8-2, with a 1.55 era, .97 whip, and 91 Ks in 87 innings, unbelievable numbers that project out to 24 wins and 273 Ks on the season, along with the era under 2 and whip under 1. Come on…clearly there is not a chance in this world that Greinke, on the Royals, even approaches 24 wins and 273 K’s.
Further, Greink’s last two starts, while certainly not horrible, have shown him to be human this season – 5 innings with 5 earned runs (7 runs total) and 7 innings with 3 earned runs (4 runs total). The days of back to back to back 0 or 1 earned runs games are gone, and more games of 3 or 4 earned runs are coming, with wins less likely. Given the fact that the average Greinke owner obtained his services with a 12th round pick (according to yahoo) and the chance to land a solid pitcher AND top-notch bat are too much for this guy to pass up. Boast Greinke’s impending 20 win, 250+ K campaign on an owner that drools over the fantasy rankings and grab as much as you can carry without looking back.
Next is Zach Duke. His stats: 6-4, 2.62 era, 1.13 whip and 42 K’s in 79 innings. This projects out to 18 wins and 126 K’s. Only 26 Duke is a great talent, but he is on the lowry Pirates, making 18 wins very unlikely and his 126 K’s is underwhelming. So, you are counting on his era and whip to carry his value for the remainder of the season. While his era and whip are outstanding so far, he stood at 4.82 and 1.50 in ‘08 and 5.53 and 1.73 in ‘07. Again, he is young and just hitting his stride, which could last the whole season and into the next, but I would not bet on it. Instead, I see his era rising up into the mid-3’s or higher, with an equivalent whip. A guy that most owners took late in the draft as a sleeper type, its time to see what his value is in the market and if you can get the value of a guy with 6 wins, an era in the 2’s and very low whip, make a deal to improve your club.
Last is Edwin Jackson. Of these three he is the most shocking so far. In ‘08 Jackson’s era was 4.42, with a 1.51 whip in 183 innings. In ‘07 he sported a horrible 5.76 era and 1.76 whip, throwing 161 innings. This year, however, Jackson looks like an ace, 5 wins and an era of 2.30, whip of 1.04, and 57 K’s in 74 innings. It’s tough to say how other owners feel about Jackson, but if you can find an owner that will pay full price for Jackson’s early stats, despite his unproven major league track record, take it and run while you still can, I predict the wheels will fall off the bus on this one.
All three of these pitchers obviously have tremendous talent and are highly touted youngsters. A good argument could be made that they are simply coming into their own and will be fantasy ace quality for years to come. But, even assuming that they hold it together for a whole season (let alone seasons to come), fantasy seasons are generally not won by having 1 top pitcher. Instead, it takes a team to win. You made a great early season draft choice/pickup and have been rewarded handsomly so far, congrats, but the season is not over and there is more work to be done. Of course, it all depends on what you can get for these guys, but assuming that you get the value of their current rankings and stats, now is the time to take those amazing early stats to the bank, grab several established players, and make your team better.
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