Its nearing the end of May and Papi just hit his 1st HR of the year, it is certainly not breaking news that he has been terrible this year, but what is a fantasy owner to do? I think a brief recap of his career stats is in order.
Ortiz’s played 6 seasons for the Twins from ‘97 to ‘02. In those 6 years he did virtually nothing, so little in fact that the Twins, an organization that I feel is one of the best run in the league, simply let him go. In come the Sox and in 2003 Ortiz put up some pretty respectable numbers. From 2002 to 2003 his numbers improved (in only about 30 more ab’s) from 52 to 79 runs, 20 to 31 HRs, 75 to 101 rbis, and his ba from .272 to .282. Then, in ‘04, ‘05, ‘06, and ‘07 Ortiz became the absolute beast that all us fantasy geeks came to know and love – he topped out at 119 runs, hit 54 HRs one year, and had a season high of 137 rbis during that period, not to mention hitting a robust .332 in ‘07. In ‘08 Ortiz was hurt, only had about 400 abs, and put up some mediocre numbers, including a .264 ba.
So what does this mean for his value today? In my opinion, to put it bluntly, Ortiz is an ageing (34, or so we’re told….) former steriod beast that has reached the end of the line. This pains me to say as a Sox fan - it’s easier to think that maybe being released from the Twins and picked up by the Sox, in a great ballpark with a top-notch offense, energized him and he realized his full potential – or, maybe he realized that if he didn’t start putting up some numbers he would be out of the league and took whatever action necessary. Personally, I do not care and certainly do not want to get into a debate about steriods (though, for the record, I am of the opinion that it was, and potentially still is, absolutely rampant throughout the league), the bottom line is that after 13 MLB seasons, a variety of injuries, and a body frame that simply cannot be expected to last long (hello Mo Vaughn) the tank is empty. Could he break out and have a month or two period with wild HR totals, sure, of course, and the Sox offense is still there to help him along, but I think ever increasing stress and toll on his body is just too much to make any period of continue production unrealistic at this point.
So, if I have Ortiz (which I do in one league) and can peddle him to someone based on name value for a guy that can help me, I do it. In reality, I think there are a number of free agent/widely available types that will put up as good, if not better numbers than Ortiz from here on out, guys like Kotchman, Casey Blake, and LaRoche. Would I drop Ortiz? Not in most leagues leagues, though it depends on the format and roster restrictions.
Ultimately, I do not see Ortiz finishing this season, not on the field anyway, the Sox have great respect for their stars, but they need to win now and have no problems putting the team first – an extended DL stint may be in order and with a pat on the behind a ‘thanks for all your good work’ and a fade out into retirement (they have him signed through 2010, with an option for 2011, which I do not see being exercised). Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, Bay, these guys power what is a new-look Sox squad, they will not sit around and wait for Ortiz to come around and neither should you.
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