Buying low or selling high? For my money, I’m all about buying low.
Look no further than the top six Yahoo! Fantasy shortstops. Young, Bartlett (???), Scutaro (????), Theriot, Jeter, and Cabrera (as in, Asdrubal). We all know that the cream usually rises which means that both Hanley and Jose will once again reign supreme as the top SS in their class. While I’m sure everyone would love to “buy low” on these underperformers that simply isn’t going to happen.
When buying low, the key is to find a guy who is in the 25-32 age range and has performed well in two of the last three seasons. Here’s my crop of the best buy low candidates for the month of May: David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Brian McCann, Johnny Peralta, and Brandon Phillips.
For my money, the two best guys to target are Matt Holliday and Johnny Peralta. That’s not to say that I don’t value Wright fifty times more than those other guys, but when it comes to bang for your buck, these two guys are money.
Peralta is hitting a Luis Soto-esque .198, but back to back years averaging 22 HR’s, 90 Runs, and 80 RBI’s are enticing SS numbers. The fact that he’ll only be 27 at the end of the month leaves a lot of optimism that he will quickly find production again. In ’08, Peralta hit around .230 for the first two months. In ’07, he hit .227 in April. While the power numbers were showing up, Johnny has always been a slow guy to come around. Throw in the fact that he’s likely to earn a 3B tag along the way, he’s a real interesting guy.
Holliday is a lot more complex. The fact that he’s hitting a mere .223 with only 2 HR’s is bound to have a few owners concerned about this once dominant hitter. Most folks are going to think they’re savvy in dumping him at this point because he’s no longer in Colorado. They are going to say that “there’s no way he’ll be the 36 HR, 137 RBI guy that he was in 2007”.
While they might be right that Holliday’s days as an MVP type player are over, it’s also reasonable to think that his struggles are due to the fact that he’s switching leagues. That’s not exactly an uncommon trend.
Colorado is obviously a hitter’s paradise (although it has chilled a bit that last couple of years), but Holliday had a road OBP of .405 while hitting .308 in ’08 and .374 and .301 in ’07. Not bad numbers away from Coors.
While I think it’s reasonable to expect Holliday to be a solid .300 guy with 20+ HR’s and good RBI production, he’s only recommended if you can get him for a nice sized discount.









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Chewy, if you are interested in Peralta, make me an offer….arguably the best shortstop in the AL the last few years.
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