Had a draft last night (12 team, h2h point based, deep rosters including 5 starting OF’s, MI, CI, Util, 7 starting SP’s, 4 starting RP’s) and thought I’d share a few points.
5 keeper league, so round 1 of the draft was effectively round 6 (for clarity I will just refer to the rounds by those numbers as it represents the actual number of players picked).
Boy was I in the mood to roll the dice!? Among my risky selections were Ortiz, Ludwick (one-year wonder?), Furcal, Harden, Duchscherer, F. Carmona, and Nady. However, I think these picks were justified, especially when viewing the ADP – some examples,
Round 6 drafted Ortiz – ADP 4.5
Round 10 drafted Ludwick – ADP 7.4
Round 12 drafted Furcal – ADP 5.8
Round 13 drafted Harden – ADP 8.2
Round 21 drafted Nady – ADP 15
So – while I’m not generally a huge gambler, at least not to the extent that half my team becomes a question mark, I just couldn’t resist in these situations - a 13th round pick for Harden, a guy that arguably has the best “stuff” in all of baseball and had an amazing stretch last season, i’ll sign up for that. True, he’ll likely frustrate me at times during the year and may be a total injury bust, but I can live without Derek Lowe and Vazquez, the other selections around that time – solid staff fillers, but my team will survive without them.
As to Dusch. and Carmona, I drafted them in the last few rounds why not!? Dusch. if he gets healthy could put up another fantastic season (at least partial season) and Carmona, after a great ‘07 and horrible ‘08, is looking amazing so far this Spring. Again, instead of taking orlando cabrera, polanco, blanton or some other ho-hum bag of mediocrity, that will probably appear on the waiver wire at some ponit anyway, take a calculated risk and grab someone that could actually be a difference maker….
It’s all about taking chances and if these guys come through for me, this team will be a monster.
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