Reading Pat’s entry got me thinking when I was a fantasy baseball newby and the mistakes I made. The most crucial aspect of any fantasy season is your draft. Preparation along with a good strategy, i.e. discipline, will go a long way.
Let’s take a sample of this years big free agents. In my younger days, I would have looked at CC Sabathia as someone who I would have reached for. He has all the glitz and glamour of a first round pick, right? Wrong. Yes, he’s the number 1 SP that wears pinstripes, yes he’s a workhorse who almost singlehandedly made the Brewers a playoff team, he has all the press right now as far as the Yanks rotation is concerned. What’s not to like? Well underneath that fatsuit are some warts. For instance, last year when the Indians traded him, he was a pathetic 6-8 with an ERA approaching 4. He has been an absolute innings eater, figuratively speaking of course, over the past 2 seasons. He has never had arm troubles, but it’s a matter of when, not if. He is overrated. If I can pick him up in the late second round, sure I’d take him and cross my fingers, otherwise pass.
On the other hand, the other major Yankee acquisition, Mark Teixeira, may be a gamble worth paying off. The model of consistency over the past 3 seasons make this first baseman very attractive. With Tex, you know what you’re getting. He’s going to drop over 35 balls into the outfield bleachers, dust home plate with his spikes over a hundred times, and should be an RBI machine in New York. Now the downside. There are plenty of power hitting first baseman in the game, position scarcity this is not. I have found over the years that a big time free agent usually starts off slow, especially in New York. The pressure to produce is immense. Can he handle it? I still say Tex is a first round pick, albeit a late one. If he’s there at your draft in the second round, calmly select his name and fist pump under the table, because you got a steal.
Pat said it correctly, value over big names.
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Have to disagree on Sabathia. His warts were really the first 4 starts after which he was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA. After that he was the best pitcher in baseball. His next 31 starts he went 17-7 1.88 ERA 237K. For comparison during the same time frame Santana was 15-5 2.49 ERA 188K, Cliff Lee 20-3 2.76 ERA 158K, and Lincecum 16-5 2.64 ERA 243 K. If you are drafting a pitcher early he has to be in consideration
Sabathia is a stud, but I still am apprehensive. He has logged some serious innings….and has shown that he is susceptible to streaks.
However, you have to think he will put up some great numbers in NY, especially with the run support that will result after Arod returns to the lineup.
How will he handle the pressure. New York is a tad different that Milwaukee and Cleveland. With what is expected out of him, will he produce? I say after 10 decisions, he will not have a winning record.
Sabathia – I’ve been saying for years this guy will not last, to big, to sloppy, way to many innings etc., and I continue to be wrong, but I’m stubborn and holding that line! I think he’s in for a hugely disapointing year – not a risk I think is worth taking unless he really falls into your lap.
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