Chris Carpenter – Should We Believe?

by pat on March 24, 2009 · 0 comments

Don’t look now but Chris Carpenter, the most dominant piece of glass outside of Rich Harden, is KILLING it in spring training.

While we have all learned (most times the hard way) that spring numbers rarely translate, Carpenter is a proven talent. It just happens that over the course of the last two seasons he has been unable to stay healthy.

That being said…this line is enough to make any fantasy owner salivate.

19 IP, 4BB, 10K and 0 earned runs! He gave up two yesterday to the Nats….so these numbers are obviously one start off….but the runs came off an error (interestingly, his own!).

The question is….can we believe it? Will Carp stay healthy and put up Cy worthy numbers? or will he go down after a few innings?

Its a gamble, with huge upside. Carpenter will assuredly be available mid-draft and at that point you have to ask yourself…..”Do I feel lucky?”.

I think it is a worthwhile gamble, three times in his career he has logged 200+ innings (twice in St. Louis, once in Toronto) and 4 other times more than 150 innings.

If you can get 150+ innings from Carpenter you can expect solid ERA, WHIP and K totals….I do not forsee him hurting you in any categories. Anything over 150 innings will be gravy.

So, where to draft him? Carpenter is virtually off the charts (in a bad way) in Y! and ESPN leagues creating an incredible late-middle round pick with high upside. So far all spring training reports, and results, have been positive. However, watch the innings, watch the reports on his shoulder and be prepared to sell “high” after a couple solid starts.

In Other Cardinals Pitching News
Don’t look now…but closer controversy is ripe in St. Louis. Perez has been thought to be the closer but has anyone noticed what Motte has been doing? Hmmmmm, yet another reason not to spend high/middle picks on closers.

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